Cyber Norm Initiation in the International System

Why do states adopt divergent cyber governance norms despite shared vulnerabilities in cyberspace? While global connectivity and growing cyber threats encourage cooperation, stark differences in norm support persist, leaving cyberspace fragmented and hindering the establishment of global norms. We argue that state preferences across two key contentious domains of cyber norms—autonomy and security—are shaped by a combination of internal and external threat perceptions and domestic ideological orientation. States facing internal threats tend to emphasize digital sovereignty and content control, while those facing external threats prioritize regulations in the domain of security. We test our theoretical expectations by applying a two-step topic modeling approach combining structural topic modeling and latent Dirichlet allocation to the International Cyber Expression (ICE) dataset from 1998 to 2023. We find strong support for the role of threat type in shaping norm support, while ideological commitments condition states’ willingness to endorse regulation, in both security and autonomy domains.