Broadly speaking, my current works examine when and how leaders use state apparatus to repress opposition in authoritarian countries. In this venture, I combine innovative quantitative methodologies with in-depth interviews and fieldwork.

• Ripe Moments For Terror Attacks: Opportunity Benefits-Reputation Tradeoff (With Seden Akcinaroglu) – Conflict Management and Peace Science

While considerable research exists on the underlying causes of terrorism, the timing of terrorist attacks remains poorly understood. This study argues that terrorist groups strategically exploit transient periods of crisis to strike when their targets are most vulnerable. During moments of crisis, state resources are redirected toward immediate challenges, diminishing the likelihood of prompt retaliation. However, terrorist groups weigh both opportunistic gains and reputational risks when deciding to attack. Attacks during certain crises may carry high reputational costs, creating a tradeoff. The study finds that terrorist activity increases during severe security or economic crises but significantly decreases during severe humanitarian crises.

• • • Evirgen, Y. (2019). “Political Islam in Tunisia: The History of Ennahda.” Insight Turkey

• • • A Gift for an Autocrat: Failed Coup (Under Review).
    • The Role of Local Government in Refugee Integration Policies: A Comparative Analysis (With Rabia Karakaya Polat – in preparation for submission). 
    • More Violence More Rewards: Appointment of Governors and Chiefs of Police in Turkey (With Merve Kurt – Data collection in progress).
    • The Police-Military-Civilian Triad: Shaping Peace Attitudes in Conflict Zones (with Seden Akcinaroglu and Abdinasir Jimale – Data collection in progress).
    • Ethnicity Status and Leader’s Post-Exit Fate (with Abdinasir Jimale and Onsel Gurel Bayrali – Data collection in progress).